If the stakes are calculated with a view to producing the same returns, the commerce effectively amounts to taking around four.4 on Clinton getting . A big worth a few 60 vote margin, which incorporates numerous sensible permutations and outcomes. So as an alternative, I’ll simply supply an instance of the kind of hedges which are available. The most obvious is to hedge between Clinton for Next President and one or two of the margin choices. Therein lies Trump’s elementary problems – he has never been thought to be qualified or temperamentally match for workplace.
Lest we overlook, there was loads of GOP opposition to Trump’s 2016 nomination. Most races were won with less than 50% and at one stage, a contested conference was heavily odds-on. It is abnormal, if not unknown in opposition to a sitting president. These are abnormal occasions although and there’s already some will for a problem.
I received 34.zero concerning the eventual winner Mike Pence late in the piece. There are many things that we must always have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why enjoying Betfair’s Next Secretary of State market is each thrilling and fraught with hazard. Compared to Brexit or a Donald Trump presidency, the fate of the more and more irrelevant Labour Party could look like small beer.
In this evaluation, he’ll dominate tomorrow’s 5 races, add further wins in Arizona, Wisconsin after which the North-East. Missouri is also fascinating on the Democrat side, with Bernie Sanders the topic of a big gamble.
Stockton South is another of those Northern, Leave (sixty two%) seats that swung surprisingly onerous for Labour in 2017. Looking on the UKIP impact within the last two elections, it seems they might have been worse affected by their rise and therefore, the Tories may profit from the Brexit Party standing. Certainly if the Tories can better 46% for the third election in a row, they will be mighty onerous to beat. Peterborough is exactly the kind of seat where Tories are proper to fret about the presence of Brexit Party, whose 29% in a by-election earlier this 12 months was mostly achieved at Tory expense. Incumbent Lisa Forbes lost the 2015 common election here.
The Betfair market would level towards predictable defences – just as Labour managed in 17 of 18 mid-time period defences since shedding energy in 2010. Ultimately, my prediction is that the Labour machine and postal vote will get above 30%, and that may simply be enough with the vote cut up 4 methods. That was paramount in my thoughts when backing them at 2.0 however, as mentioned on Twitter, I bailed out with a very small loss when the new UKIP chief’s model started to implode. It should even be famous that, on the time of Heywood and Middleton, UKIP and Nigel Farage were arguably at their peak relevance and recognition. Granted, Labour are proficient at getting their postal vote out and have a powerful native candidate, excellent for their main marketing campaign theme – preventing native NHS cuts.
Just as these historic upsets rocked the assumptions of elites, pollsters and media pundits, they altered the narrative surrounding this progress business. If the cash is right and Labour lose a seat they’ve held for 70 years, it might surely deepen the disaster surrounding Corbyn’s management. Defeat in both by-election might prove a tipping level.
Instead, the common political race is a roller-coaster affair. It can be affected by many components, including campaign advertisements, current events, debates, and scandals. Politics gambling hasn’t gained the same clout amongst lawmakers.
Expect an hour or two of gloating at Corbyn’s stupidity for calling a vote he couldn’t win before reality sinks in. This will in all probability be only the primary of several no confidence votes in the government and they will become ever harder to win, as long as the government doesn’t have a solution to take Brexit ahead. Wouldn’t it be good to have some solutions to all the Brexit questions we’ve been asking forever? If not, will there be a second referendum or a snap election?
Our 2020 Presidential Election odds moved slightly in his favour, with 2.sixty eight now obtainable about him profitable a second term. An comprehensible reaction if simply comparing the scenario to latest cycles. Obama, Clinton and Reagan all received a second term despite losing the House of Representatives of their first mid-time period. Anybody with even obscure White House ambitions might be excited following the best Democrat mid-phrases results since Watergate. With Trump engulfed in one scandal after another, presumably facing impeachment, there has by no means been a better time to be the Democrat Nominee.
The twenty-odd percent of undecideds may be exactly that – the lack of impartial data is a typical complaint – but a lot of the relaxation, for my part, are fairly fastened. That displays polls exhibiting Remain barely ahead with a large number of undecideds.
The ramifications – whether they be short or long-term, electoral, political, authorized or cultural – could be profound. If it were, within the absence of a technological answer, uncertainty would persist and the problem would merely be kicked down the street to the brand new end-date. It won’t fulfill the DUP or Labour, let alone the hardline Brexiters in May’s personal party. Likewise, any transitional deal involving Customs Union membership is just more likely to appease Brexiters if it has a particular, legally enshrined, end-date. Incumbent Bill Nelson is bidding for a fourth time period towards an opponent many imagine might be tougher than he’s confronted earlier than.
Yes, they’d an extended method to fall and a backlash from Brexiters angry at their failure to ship was predictable. But the size defied the consultants – the upper tutorial estimate noted in my preview was 800 – and Betfair markets. In 2008, Obama had started a great distance behind the chances-on favorite Clinton while the Republican race was extremely unstable.
Today’s article discusses his prospects and the broader Labour disaster. Plus, there was often a reversion among voters in the direction of the status quo in the final days.
It is straightforward to think about that a few weeks down the line, the marketing campaign might be engulfed in scandal and Trump dismissed as too far behind within the polls to be thought of aggressive. Top Republicans like Ryan and Rubio withdraw their endorsement, in a belated defence of their own reputations.
Likewise, I didn’t foresee Cambridge Analyticaet aloutsmarting Hilary Clinton’s digital organisation through the subsequent presidential election. The result was a black president whose voting record was far to the left of even the Democratic Party mainstream. The minority of Republican voters motivated by race were instantly joined by small authorities advocates livid concerning the banking bailouts. From early 2009, this nascent motion built an alternate info ecosystem of blogs and speak radio.
One incessantly said explanation is worry of history repeating itself. Remember 2016, when Hillary Clinton was overwhelming favourite, however Trump defied the polls and the pundits. There is a story that Biden is no better a candidate and will endure the identical fate. Check out best betting websites for welcome bonus and provides.
In January, Theresa May’s Brexit deal is scheduled to go before parliament and anticipated to lose. The effect, as parliament tries to take control of the method, could actually be anything from a chaotic, no-deal situation, a delayed Brexit, a general election or one other referendum. As argued earlier, I suppose we’ll end up with the latter. The most immediate effect, and emerging consensus, is that an on-time Brexit – leaving on March 29 – is extraordinarily unlikely. Everybody acquainted with the method believed the one way it may happen on time was for both May’s deal to be accepted, or no deal.
Trump redrew the map in a means different Republicans have only dreamed – that fact is unarguable. Since the market opened, over half the money has been traded on one man – a selection that may generate infinite publicity and speculation about motives. Mitt Romney has been matched right down to [2.2] (forty five%) which, for my cash, is means too brief.
At this stage within the electoral cycle, I’m backing 2022 at three.25. Even if the government is in meltdown, or May is changed, it’s not compelled to name an election. It can be a massive distraction from Brexit negotiations and Labour might only drive it by marshalling non-Conservatives for a no-confidence vote – an especially difficult task.
Whoever wins the management contest, Labour have to get a grip, unite and transfer forward. A break up or the deselection of MPs is the only practical answer. We could be taking a look at a collapse on the size seen in Scotland.
Rumours, pretend information and actual real-world scares stored spooking the markets, driving vast, fast fluctuations. Well, it should first be noted that punters backing alternate options could not necessarily truly imagine they will win, or even have a chance. Rather they see an opportunity to make a buying and selling profit.
Disasters have the potential to unite even probably the most divided of nations. It can turn into impossible for the opposition to chop via and once they do, might be accused of ‘enjoying politics‘.
Presumably, bettors have grown weary of reacting to relentless inside machinations throughout the Conservative Party that never go wherever. Florida voted for Trump by a 1.three% margin however his approval has since fallen 7% to an underwater forty nine%. Synema has mostly led polls for the Democrats but that may have been an effect of a divisive Republican major, and there are nonetheless lots of undecideds, who in all probability lean Republican. The consequence will largely hinge on turnout and particularly whether the Democrats can encourage suburban switchers and further Hispanic voters to the polls.
The UK by no means bought into the European project on an emotional level; it was transactional and elite-led. As the Conservative response to Obama turned more militant, Congress was inevitably gridlocked – thus reinforcing the notion of ‘ineffective government’.
Although they’ll at least count on Justin Amash’s vote. Perhaps the dearth of market curiosity is right down to the overall belief that Trump won’t be faraway from office. We could have a brand new PM, Cabinet, worry of nationwide meltdown and much talk of urgency, however the fundamentals of British politics haven’t modified.
Of 22 defences, 21 had been received with Copeland the sole exception at a very low point for the get together. News of a Labour win will barely interrupt the 24/7 Brexit conversation.
In becoming a member of the Tories in coalition, the Lib Dems burned their bridges with over half their voters. Throughout the parliament, they have been punished repeatedly in native elections and obliterated at the General Election, shedding forty nine out of fifty seven seats.
Their vote share reflects widespread fear of the opposite aspect, rather than endorsement. Although both Macron and Trump are besieged proper now, it is too early to form a confident conclusion. His business acumen was at all times hotly disputed and his troubles stem from personality and nefarious behaviour, rather than politics.
Like Reed, Hunt has a reliable excuse, within the form of a profitable job offer. Running the V&A or a extremely paid position in the nuclear business is clearly regarded a better profession transfer than sitting on Labour’s backbenches. Let alone fighting what might be a bloodbath at the subsequent general election on a ticket he doesn’t imagine in.
Where they do disagree, in fact, is over international policy and nuclear weapons. On the latter, Mainstream Labour are right to say the English public aren’t about to vote for a pacesetter that provides up Trident. On coverage, he’s attacked for being too left-wing however in reality, the place are the dramatic variations? He received into some bother for talking about decriminalising prostitution. Besides that not being in the top hundred important electoral issues, I’m not sure that’s a vote loser.
May will either return with lower than a duplicate of the deeply unpopular Chequers plan or negotiations would possibly fail. Even if a deal does emerge, it might well not be ratified by the European Parliament in time for the March twenty ninth deadline.
Their nuanced compromise over Brexit seems opportunistic and convinces hardly anybody in this polarised surroundings. A recent poll of party members confirmed rising dissatisfaction.
Consider what occurred in general elections over the previous five years in the USA and UK. Only time will inform but Trump backers should beware of constructing a standard mistake in re-preventing the earlier election, assuming the identical circumstances will apply.
In doing so at just the purpose when the important thing undecided voters have been more than likely to be paying consideration, he has blown any probability of altering a popularity that has consistently measured 60% unfavourable. More critically, the huge deficit behind Clinton on temperament and being certified seems irreversible. It is unimaginable to think that solely eight days ago, some have been speaking a couple of lifeless-heat and fivethirtyeight was constantly revising it’s overly reactive model.
The adverse adverts have started in force, but Cruz stays well on target to win the opening Iowa Caucus. The former think he’s excessive, unelectable and out of contact with the wider nation. The latter that his critics are corrupt promote-outs – bolstered by their refusal to acknowledge his large, democratic mandate.
Of these, only Gingrich was on the eventual main ballot. On the Democrat aspect, President Barack Obama ran unchallenged. He traded beneath [3.0] but didn’t even make the top-five.
In the absence of more numbers, bettors must decide whether that ballot was an outlier or if the Democrat campaign is basically slicing through. As I wrote when reviewing 2017, that defeat represented a part of a liberal backlash to the world-altering events of 2016, corresponding to Brexit and the election of Donald Trump.
If unprepared to compromise, the federal government would inevitably hit a wall and be pressured to alter course. That enabled Nigel Farage to talk vaguely about the advantages of a Norway-type exit without scrutiny. David Cameron might promise a referendum on the Nice Treaty, knowing it might be ancient history by the time he would become PM.
It could be onerous to sell an aged, defeated major rival, with corruption allegations in his own background, substitute a candidate over an unproven corruption scandal. After one more entrance-bencher resigned – having refused to follow Corbyn’s sick-advised three-line whip supporting Article 50 – punters rushed to again the troubled Labour chief for an early exit. From 1.eight when tipped a fortnight ago (fifty six%), Corbyn was backed down to 1.14 to leave publish before the next general election.
If an opposition was competitive, it was likelier to be UKIP. Almost all the seats projected to vary hands would go to the Tories, and this is where the specifics of English politics are essential. The right-wing brand and English nationalism of the Tories and UKIP are worlds apart from the SNP’s outlook. Nicola Sturgeon’s celebration are pro-immigration, anti-Brexit and effectively stole the garments of the liberal-left, then wrapped them in a flag. With Labour declining and mute when it came to nationalism, transferring to the SNP was a straightforward call for his or her supporters.
As it transpires, the Lib Dem in the final three polls ranged from eleven-15%. In London – prime Remainer territory – simply 15%.Swinsonhas failed to cut by way of or gain benefit from her distinction with two deeply divisive male rivals for PM.
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A large seventy eight% voted to Remain and that likely inspired the 10% swing to elect Marsha de Cordova. This electorate is much younger than most and due to this fact far from fertile Tory ground, though latest polls present their share holding up in London. This was arguably Labour’s greatest result in 2017, probably in reaction to Brexit.
By late May, after Euro elections that noticed the massive-two parties hammered like never earlier than, the bottom fell below forty%. I enter into this unprecedented sequence of occasions with one over-arching principle.
The major takeaway headline was confirmation of an ongoing investigation into links between Russia and the Trump marketing campaign, which begun last July. Another was a firm rejection of the current president’s claim that Trump Tower had been wiretapped on the orders of his predecessor.
In order to predict the way forward for politics, we have to totally understand the current. An apparent logic, for certain, yet the failure of specialists to follow it lies behind the quite a few political earthquakes of recent years. Politics isn’t inherently unpredictable, nor detached from previous experience, but the way during which it’s practiced has changed quick. As her government becomes engulfed in a single crisis after one other, Betfair punters are backing an imminent, or a minimum of relatively swift, exit for Theresa May. At odds of eight.2, the Prime Minister leaving submit before the end of the yr is still solely rated equivalent to a 12% probability however right now, January-March 2018 hit its lowest mark yet at three.15 (32%).
If taking both sides of the place, the plan at that stage can be to reinvest the survival income into either the nomination or presidency market. For clarification of this technique, either check out the notes at the finish of that earlier piece, or feel free to get in touch through Twitter. My name is that by early 2020, we could have the choice to cash out for profit. On one facet, we will lay Trump to win the 2020 Election at 2.58 and/or to be the Republican Nominee at 1.forty one. On the opposite we will lay him to leave office in 2018 at thirteen.zero, again him to outlive merely until 1/1/2020 at 1.25 or complete a full-time period at 1.37.
Trump backers have argued for years that a strong US economic system would ensure a second time period. Now, in the wake of coronavirus, opponents argue that the economic carnage will destroy him.
A belated recognition of this basic downside likely clarify recent attempts to undertake a softer tone about his signature problem – immigration. Though not necessarily the most salient election problem, it’s pivotal to Trump’s picture and his primary speaking level. This week’s mini-comeback is probably due to Hillary Clinton for once enduring a worse news cycle, as damaging revelations about her emails proceed to seep out. However as anybody who has been watching will know, this isn’t typical of the final 14 months. The media can’t help speaking about Trump, and he can’t help giving them endless material to work with.
The huge question, subsequently, is whether Labour’s constructive trajectory will continue, or whether or not they are vulnerable to a Tory comeback. As a serving member of the London Assembly, Kurten has become one of the most prominent UKIP politicians.
This yr’s race is particularly exhausting to predict, given the Trump issue. It is another state that the Republicans simply should win to keep up any sensible probability but, theoretically no less than, the Democrats may nonetheless afford to lose.
At any given moment, a solid member of this political thriller is liable to be focused by some department of the government. Even Trump’s glamorous household are dragged by way of the mud. Every little transfer on this drama makes immediate information via Twitter, dividing a worldwide audience along furious, partisan lines. The present measurement of majority estimate is nearer to Labour’s final victory in 2005, when Tony Blair received a working majority of 66, but properly below his two previous landslides. For while the Tories stay heavy favourites to win, their lead has significantly narrowed.
The United Kingdom is in grave peril, as its two principal elements are becoming one-party states. The first referendum transformed British politics – again in mid-2014, Labour have been on target to win most seats in each nations. Johnson’s victory is yet one more blow to what I name the ‘engaged minority’. People who observe politics in some element and due to this fact assume elections will revolve across the narratives pushed by properly-knowledgeable skilled journalists and relatively intellectual media.
As one of many MPs that attempted to convey down Corbyn in 2015, and a staunch Remainer, Alexander might even have been in on such a plot. The key date is October 18th, when a deal is meant to be finalised.
Let alone whether or not Brexit will happen next month or in any respect. The PM laid out his plan to the Tory celebration conference yesterday, hours after the EU acquired the first draft. During February, Conservative and Labour polled between seventy one% and seventy nine% combined in every survey. By late April, that combined share had fallen regularly beneath 60%.
Political scientist Dave Wasserman has argued that Trump might even lose by 5M votes nationwide,yet nonetheless win. He lost the popular vote by 2.9M, or 2.1 per cent, in 2016 yet received the electoral faculty as a result of slim victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Polls in that trio of states, plus Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, are a greater information than nationwide surveys. The present president has been frequently in contrast, head-to-head, with Joe Biden since entering politics in 2015. The lengthy-time period indicators are grim for Trump, who has often trailed by double-digits.
If the Democrats can manage to unite, , and no third celebration surge materialises, I’m assured they’ll win, whoever they put up. Here’s the issue – they present absolutely no sign of uniting. Rather, their civil war is about to escalate in tomorrow’s TV debate in Nevada forward of Saturday’s caucuses. Ever since, polls have been horrible for Trump, translating right into a series of Democrat positive aspects in particular elections and their finest mid-time period efficiency since Watergate.
Had Sanders simply stepped back and enthusiastically endorsed her – he would most likely be in pole place at present. To perceive how totally different 2020 will require wanting back on the outstanding 2016 story. At this stage, Sanders was priced at least ten times larger than currently. He was a fringe determine – not even a completely-fledged Democrat – selling socialism in a country that by no means voted that way. Currently Environment Secretary, Gove has stormed to the highest of the betting in recent weeks.He’s been in my plans for months for one core purpose – he will run.
The Cruz argument that he’s the only man who can be Trump and deserves a head-to-head fight would gain traction. Those few votes by which Cruz fell short may prove extremely important, and not simply because every delegate is so priceless when your objective is to forestall Trump reaching 1237. Bernie Sanders was backed into right down to 1.06 (ninety four%) earlier than the late Clinton comeback. The Republican deficit was equally marginal, with Donald Trump ruining my wager on Ted Cruz by simply zero.2%. Ultimately, once we get to the convention Cruz and Trump may have three quarters of the delegates.
In choosing this year’s seven, we tried to cowl the complete political spectrum however alas, UKIP needed to be excluded as they don’t have any MPs to lose. In doing so, they are merely following the polls which, whereas nonetheless one-sided, have definitely closed up. Yesterday’s surveys revealed Tory leads of thirteen and 15% – the latter showing Labour’s highest vote share in months. It is difficult not to conclude that the manifesto is partly responsible. Not only did it energise their base and earn reward from a few of Jeremy Corbyn’s harshest critics, but it modified the subject.
Apart from his victory speech, Trump has made very little try and be magnanimous or reach out to opponents. Doing so in today’s acceptance speech is totally crucial. Gaining power merely requires successful extra votes than your opponent. Without constructing at least a level of consensus and unity, Trump will battle to attain anything in workplace.
Similarly as this comprehensive RTE piece explains, the UK authorities are nowhere close to squaring the circles required to allow a hard border with Ireland. Few anticipate any of this to be resolved in the course of the summer season recess, in time for the important EU summit in October. Instead, politicians will be positioning for convention season and the aftermath.
That cycle of negativity explains his market weak point, out to eight.zero (12%) from 1.eight (56%) a fortnight in the past. It additionally explains why Juppe has shortened from 550 at the time of my tweet, to only 10.zero. Neither signal, nevertheless, is essentially a reliable indicator. The demographics and politics of the Cumbrian seat – older, whiter, pro-Brexit – don’t bode nicely.
Be very wary earlier than jumping on that bandwagon or drawing snap conclusions, though. This remains an evolving story by which the most recent headlines are based on incomplete info. As he scours the headlines and sizzling takes on cable information, Donald Trump will take pleasure in this morning more than any since changing into president in 2016. The first glimpses of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report into Russian interference in that election are out and on the principal cost, Trump and his campaign have been cleared of collusion.
As argued consistently at the time, his lead was a false one, based primarily on name recognition. The first to problem him for favouritism was Marco Rubio – who completed a distant fourth.
In the meantime, Betfair markets are signalling a new entrance-runner to switch May as Next Conservative Leader and Next Prime Minister. Michael Gove, beneficial at 14.0 again in February, has been backed heavily and is now buying and selling at 6.6 and seven.four to imagine these respective positions. In our market on the year of May’s exit, 2018 and 2019 are each trading around 2.eight. Those mixed odds means she’s rated only 28% likely to survive till 2020, not to mention be around to finish the backstop interval.
She is a former Congresswoman from Utah – a state that overwhelmingly rejected Trump in it’s main and offers a few of his worst common election numbers. Mickelsen is a Mormon – one more demographic amongst whom Trump has dire ballot numbers, especially since he questioned the sincerity of 2012 candidate Mitt Romney’s religion. It is a reasonably safe bet that Trump didn’t select, or have any affect, over these appointments. There is nothing to suggest the chair Enid Mickelsen is properly disposed towards the presumptive nominee.
While reluctance to tie up money for an extended or undefined period is comprehensible, it can be something of a misnomer. For if you play a popular market such as Trump Exit Date, liquidity is constantly sturdy enough to allow cashing out whenever you select. To secure a profit, one merely needs to accurately predict the short-time period trajectory. It is nice to know there are nonetheless some timeless certainties in politics. The media will be obsessed with leadership challenge rumours and Boris Johnson shall be doing something inside his power to generate publicity for himself.
Labour already maintain greater than half the seats in play, almost 900 more than the Conservatives and, based on renowned psephologists Rallings and Thrasher, are on course to realize a further 200. Whereas the events are tied nationally, they trail by 22% within the latest London poll and have no chance in the mayoralties. But to be tied with the government mid term is a fundamentally poor long-time period sign. Before Thursday, Stephen Fisher of ElectionsEtc was mooting someplace approaching a ten% lead as a target. When Ed Miliband received these actual elections, he led by 2% on PNS.
Moreover, a great majority will give them the numbers to introduce impeachment expenses. All 435 districts for the House of Representatives are up for election, meaning Democrats want to gain 23 seats to win management and are at present rated favourites to take action. I’ve been backing the Democrats to win the House all year – my place is 100 units at 1.81 to win the House – and see no purpose to alter course. The odds nonetheless imply a a lot lower likelihood than the scores of main US consultants and prediction fashions.
We’re not talking about the general stuff like decrease taxes or Medicare for All – we’re speaking about things that make little sense like free cutlery for cats or $1,000 a month to every family in America. But keep in mind that a authorities is something you are stuck with. Death and taxes, they say, and a savvy politician will even tax your demise!
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Before they get a say, however, the former Foreign Secretary must finish top-two in a field of maybe 15 or extra, to be determined by MPs on a multi-spherical knockout foundation. One conclusion drawn from these opening debates entails the same dynamics. The stage is just too crowded to expect any outsider to cut via.
According to virtually each strand of political opinion, May is doomed. At greatest, compelled to hold on via the torturous Brexit course of, wielding little power over her cupboard till they resolve their differences and work out a plan to replace her. There is an argument raging over whether this is the UK’s worst authorities ever.
As the market implies, one man is well forward of the rest. No politician has had a better crisis than Rishi Sunak – the younger, telegenic Chancellor who created the popular furlough scheme. One cause pundits have been blindsided by the polls was extra parties polling much better than ordinary. As it transpired, while Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullen did take a much higher, gamechanging share than minor parties normally do, they fell again within the latter stages.
That historic Trump/Clinton encounter was the most important market in Betfair’s historical past, so numerous information are on track to be broken. Over the past month, a mean of 500K has been matched per day. What may finally show to be the most important political gamble of all-time may be underway. Joe Biden just hit his lowest odds yet to be Next President, at odds of [1.sixty six].